Peter's Election Tracker

New Hampshire is a funky state. On the federal level it is dominated by Democrats. It has sent Democrats to the Senate for decades, and has gone to Democrats in presidential elections for just as long. It's the exact opposite case on the statewide level. The governor is Republican, and the state legislature is controlled by Republicans. Unless something funky happens, the trend will continue. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, but Chris Pappas is a strong candidate, and will likely be the next senator from New Hampshire.

Jon Ossoff has quickly become a rising star in the Democratic Party. He's young, articulate, an incredible fundraiser (he's raised the most out of any Senate candidate), objectively hot by politician standards, and has won in a traditionally Republican state without sacrificing any key beliefs of the Democratic Party. If he can win reelection this year, many will consider him a favorite to be the presidential nominee in 2028.

Roy Cooper wins elections. He's never lost. He won the race for Attorney General in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. He won his races for Governor in 2016 as a Democrat on the same ballot Trump won on. He won again in 2020. He's now running for Senate to flip a Republican seat. Thom Tillis, the incumbent senator, is retiring. This makes North Carolina a prime pickup seat for Democrats.

Susan Collins may be the most vulnerable incumbent in the country. She is a Republican running for reelection in a state Kamala Harris won by 7 percentage points. Susan Collins has won upsets before, she won in 2020 while Joe Biden simultaneously won Maine by nine points. But as polarization continues to rise, she may have pulled off her final upset in 2020. Governor Janet Mills, who had been the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, dropped out of the race, clearing the path for progressive challenger Graham Platner as the likely Democratic nominee.

Democrat Gary Peters is retiring from his Michigan Senate seat. Trump won Michigan in 2024, and has thrown his support behind Mike Rogers, essentially making him the nominee. On the Democratic front, battle lines have been formed. Abdul El-Sayed is running on a progressive platform, and has drawn the admiration and endorsements of notable leftists and progressives like Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, among others. Mallory McMorrow, a young moderate, has also drawn her own lane with endorsements from Chris Murphy, Martin Heinrich, and others. They're both seen as different sides of an anti-democratic coin. Haley Stevens, the third candidate, has been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, and has the private backing of Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, and other members of Democratic leadership.

When Mary Peltola won her seat as Alaska's only representative in the House of Representatives, she became the first Democrat to hold that seat since 1973. She lost re-election in 2024, but not without an incredible fight. Now she's running for Senate against Senator Dan Sullivan. Democrats need to win Senate races in states they don't usually win in. And if any Democrat can win this race in Alaska, it's Mary Peltola, a candidate so well liked even Sarah Palin couldn't attack her.

Nebraska is a solid Republican state, it shouldn't be this close. Dan Osborn is an independent candidate who is making life tough for the Nebraska Republican party. He ran for a Nebraska Senate seat in 2024, and outran Kamala Harris by ~8%. He's running again in 2026, in a much more favorable environment. While he is officially an independent, he's been endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party, meaning the Democrats won't run a candidate, and Dan will receive the funding and backing of the party. Polling currently shows he's neck and neck with Pete Ricketts.

When JD Vance was elected Vice President of the United States, he had to vacate his Senate seat. The Ohio state constitution states that the governor appoints a temporary replacement until the next federal election, where a replacement for the remainder of the term is elected. Jon Husted was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine, and is now running for election to the Senate seat he holds. His most likely opponent is Sherrod Brown, a former Democratic senator from Ohio. Sherrod Brown lost his re-election bid in 2024, but is running in an electoral environment he should find much more favorable than 2024.

The Democratic and Republican parties are both holding primary elections that have turned ugly. John Cornyn is getting a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, which has led to nasty attacks on Cornyn's votes in the Senate, which have been viewed as too liberal, and Paxton's impeachment and extramarital affair. Talarico and Crockett have also been duking it out in the Democratic primary, with questions on racism, electability, and lying being thrown around. Polling shows that Cornyn and Talarico would be their parties' best bets in a general election, and also that neither of them will win their primary.