Control of the House of Representatives and the Senate is up for grabs this cycle. Democrats face an uphill battle in the Senate by nature of which seats are up for election. Flipping the Senate means making no mistakes on a very narrow path to a majority. However, it is very likely that Democrats will flip the House of Representatives this November.
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Senate
9 battleground races will decide control
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House
Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats
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2026 Senate Races. Hover a state to see details
All 35 Senate seats up for election in 2026. Republicans are defending 22 seats, Democrats 12. States not up for election are shown in grey.
Senate Control
Democrats need to flip four seats to regain control of the Senate. They have an incredibly unfriendly map to do this with. They need to play defense in states Trump won. They need to go on the offense and win in traditionally Republican states. However, they've recruited an all-star lineup of candidates to fight with.
Republicans
53
Current Seats
Democrats
47
Current Seats (incl. 2 independents)
Path to Majority
51 to Win
R 53
D 47
Democrats need +4 net seats to win majority • Republicans can lose no more than 3 seats to hold (JD Vance casts the tie-breaking vote as Vice President)
Battleground Races
New Hampshire
Likely Democrat
Currently held by Democrats (Jeanne Shaheen - retiring)
New Hampshire is a funky state. On the federal level it is dominated by Democrats. It has sent Democrats to the Senate for decades, and has gone to Democrats in presidential elections for just as long. It's the exact opposite case on the statewide level. The governor is Republican, and the state legislature is controlled by Republicans. Unless something funky happens, the trend will continue. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, but Chris Pappas is a strong candidate, and will likely be the next senator from New Hampshire.
Georgia
Lean Democrat
Currently held by Democrats (Jon Ossoff)
Jon Ossoff has quickly become a rising star in the Democratic Party. He's young, articulate, an incredible fundraiser (he's raised the most out of any Senate candidate), objectively hot by politician standards, and has won in a traditionally Republican state without sacrificing any key beliefs of the Democratic Party. If he can win reelection this year, many will consider him a favorite to be the presidential nominee in 2028.
North Carolina
Lean Democrat
Currently held by Republicans (Thom Tillis - retiring)
Roy Cooper wins elections. He's never lost. He won the race for Attorney General in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. He won his races for Governor in 2016 as a Democrat on the same ballot Trump won on. He won again in 2020. He's now running for Senate to flip a Republican seat. Thom Tillis, the incumbent senator, is retiring. This makes North Carolina a prime pickup seat for Democrats.
Polling
Cooper (D)
—
Whatley (R)
—
Margin
—
Latest Poll
—
Date
Pollster
Cooper
Whatley
Margin
Averages shown reflect all polls listed. Updated manually.
Maine
Toss-up
Currently held by Republicans (Susan Collins)
Susan Collins may be the most vulnerable incumbent in the country. She is a Republican running for reelection in a state Kamala Harris won by 7 percentage points. Susan Collins has won upsets before, she won in 2020 while Joe Biden simultaneously won Maine by nine points. But as polarization continues to rise, she may have pulled off her final upset in 2020. Governor Janet Mills, who had been the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, dropped out of the race, clearing the path for progressive challenger Graham Platner as the likely Democratic nominee.
Polling — Platner vs. Collins
Date
Pollster
Platner (D)
Collins (R)
Margin
Mar 21-23, 2026
Emerson College
48%
41%
Platner +7
Feb 12-16, 2026
Univ. of New Hampshire
49%
38%
Platner +11
Updated manually.
Michigan
Toss-up
Currently held by Democrats (Gary Peters - not seeking reelection)
Democrat Gary Peters is retiring from his Michigan Senate seat. Trump won Michigan in 2024, and has thrown his support behind Mike Rogers, essentially making him the nominee. On the Democratic front, battle lines have been formed. Abdul El-Sayed is running on a progressive platform, and has drawn the admiration and endorsements of notable leftists and progressives like Bernie Sanders, Rashida Tlaib, among others. Mallory McMorrow, a young moderate, has also drawn her own lane with endorsements from Chris Murphy, Martin Heinrich, and others. They're both seen as different sides of an anti-democratic coin. Haley Stevens, the third candidate, has been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, and has the private backing of Hakeem Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, and other members of Democratic leadership.
Alaska
Toss-up
Currently held by Republicans (Dan Sullivan)
When Mary Peltola won her seat as Alaska's only representative in the House of Representatives, she became the first Democrat to hold that seat since 1973. She lost re-election in 2024, but not without an incredible fight. Now she's running for Senate against Senator Dan Sullivan. Democrats need to win Senate races in states they don't usually win in. And if any Democrat can win this race in Alaska, it's Mary Peltola, a candidate so well liked even Sarah Palin couldn't attack her.
Polling
Date
Pollster
Peltola (D)
Sullivan (R)
Hill (I)
Ryan (R)
Mar 19-22, 2026
Alaska Survey Research
46%
41%
3%
3%
Updated manually.
⬇ Republicans Hold Majority
Republicans hold majority if they win every election below this line
Nebraska
Lean Republican
Currently held by Republicans (Pete Ricketts)
Nebraska is a solid Republican state, it shouldn't be this close. Dan Osborn is an independent candidate who is making life tough for the Nebraska Republican party. He ran for a Nebraska Senate seat in 2024, and outran Kamala Harris by ~8%. He's running again in 2026, in a much more favorable environment. While he is officially an independent, he's been endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party, meaning the Democrats won't run a candidate, and Dan will receive the funding and backing of the party. Polling currently shows he's neck and neck with Pete Ricketts.
⬆ Democrats Win Majority
Dems win majority if they win every election above this line
Ohio (Special Election)
Lean Republican
Currently held by Republicans (Jon Husted - appointed)
When JD Vance was elected Vice President of the United States, he had to vacate his Senate seat. The Ohio state constitution states that the governor appoints a temporary replacement until the next federal election, where a replacement for the remainder of the term is elected. Jon Husted was appointed by Governor Mike DeWine, and is now running for election to the Senate seat he holds. His most likely opponent is Sherrod Brown, a former Democratic senator from Ohio. Sherrod Brown lost his re-election bid in 2024, but is running in an electoral environment he should find much more favorable than 2024.
Texas
Lean Republican
Currently held by Republicans (John Cornyn) — GOP Nominee: Ken Paxton
The Democratic and Republican parties are both holding primary elections that have turned ugly. John Cornyn is getting a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, which has led to nasty attacks on Cornyn's votes in the Senate, which have been viewed as too liberal, and Paxton's impeachment and extramarital affair. Talarico and Crockett have also been duking it out in the Democratic primary, with questions on racism, electability, and lying being thrown around. Polling shows that Cornyn and Talarico would be their parties' best bets in a general election, and also that neither of them will win their primary.
House Control
Republicans hold the House by the thinnest of margins — just 220 seats. Democrats need a net gain of only 4 seats to flip control. Historically, the party out of power gains an average of 25+ seats in midterm elections. With Trump's approval underwater and Democrats overperforming in every special election this cycle, the House is the most likely chamber to flip in 2026.
Republicans
220
Current Seats
Democrats
215
Current Seats
Path to Majority
218 to Win
R 220
D 215
Democrats need +4 net seats to win majority • Republicans hold majority at 218+
Key Battleground Districts — Hover for details
Competitive districts are highlighted. All others are shown in grey.
Key Battleground Races
California 13th
Toss-up
Currently held by Republicans (John Duarte)
California's 13th is ground zero for the House majority. John Duarte flipped this Central Valley seat in 2022 by just 564 votes — the closest House race in the country that cycle. He won again in 2024, but the seat remains a top Democratic target. The district is majority-Hispanic, Biden-era Democratic, and Democrats have recruited strong candidates. In a strong Democratic environment, this seat flips.
New York 17th
Toss-up
Currently held by Republicans (Mike Lawler)
Mike Lawler is a savvy politician in a district Biden won by 10 points. He's the type of candidate who usually survives wave elections through sheer skill and moderate positioning. But he's also running for governor in New York, which means he could vacate his seat mid-cycle — creating an even bigger opportunity. Former Rep. Mondaire Jones is the likely Democratic challenger and a formidable opponent.
Colorado 8th
Lean Democrat
Currently held by Republicans (Gabe Evans)
Gabe Evans flipped this suburban Denver seat in 2024, narrowly defeating incumbent Yadira Caraveo by less than a point. It was a notable Republican pickup in a district that leans blue. Democrats are locked in on retaking it. The suburbs of Denver have been trending Democratic for years, and in a midterm environment that punishes the party in power, Evans will be fighting uphill.
Arizona 6th
Toss-up
Currently held by Republicans (Juan Ciscomani)
Juan Ciscomani has now won this Tucson-area seat twice, but never comfortably. He won in 2022 by 5 points and again in 2024 by about 3 points. The district is competitive by design — it includes a large Hispanic population in a state that has been trending purple. Democrats will target this seat aggressively. Kirsten Engel, who lost to Ciscomani by 3 points in 2024, is expected to run again.
Pennsylvania 7th
Lean Democrat
Currently held by Republicans (Ryan Mackenzie)
Ryan Mackenzie flipped this Lehigh Valley seat in 2024, defeating longtime incumbent Susan Wild by around 2 points. The district is quintessential swing territory — suburban, college-educated, and trending competitive. Wild has announced a rematch, and this race is expected to be among the most expensive House contests in 2026. A rematch in a blue wave environment strongly favors Wild.
⇓ Republicans Hold Majority
Republicans hold majority if they hold every seat below this line
New York 19th
Lean Republican
Currently held by Republicans (Marc Molinaro)
Marc Molinaro is a skilled moderate Republican representing a sprawling district across the Hudson Valley and Catskills that Biden carried. He's survived two cycles of being a top Democratic target. Democrats came close in 2022 — Josh Riley lost by just 1 point — and Riley ran again in 2024, losing by about 4 points. If Democrats are going to flip the House, they'll need to find a path that includes NY-19.
Michigan 7th
Lean Republican
Currently held by Republicans (Tom Barrett)
Tom Barrett flipped this Lansing-area seat in 2022, defeating Democrat Elissa Slotkin — who then moved on to win a Senate seat. This district has a history of close, competitive races. Democrats are working to recruit a strong challenger. In a favorable midterm environment, this is the type of seat that returns to the Democratic column.
⇑ Democrats Win Majority
Dems win majority if they win every seat above this line
Nebraska 2nd
Lean Republican
Currently held by Republicans (Don Bacon)
Don Bacon's Omaha-area district is one of the quirkiest in American politics — it's one of only two congressional districts that can split its Electoral College vote from the rest of the state. Biden won NE-2 in 2020; Trump recaptured it in 2024. Bacon himself has won by razor-thin margins each cycle. Democrats came within 2 points in 2024 and will be back. If Democrats are making the House competitive, this seat is always on the board.
About This Data
Special elections have favored Democrats in recent years. The party has become more attractive to college-educated, suburban voters, who tend to be more civically engaged and more likely to turn out in special elections. That said, we're seeing an even larger shift toward Democrats this cycle, bigger than anything we saw in 2022–23. Right now, Democrats are overperforming by almost 7 points compared to their results in that period.
2025–26 Races5
2025–26 Avg D Shift—
2022–23 Races—
2022–23 Avg D Shift—
Largest Swing—
2025–26 Special Elections — Partisan Margin (D+/R+ scale)
2022–23 Special Elections — Partisan Margin (D+/R+ scale)
About This Data
Disapproval of the Democratic Party among Democratic voters is at a historic high. Many feel their representatives have been too timid and too slow to fight back against the Trump administration. That frustration is now showing up at the ballot box, with progressive and insurgent candidates winning primaries and forcing retirements. The congressional primaries this cycle are worth watching closely.
About Polling
Polls shown are simply the latest poll released in each race. Given the lack of quantity and quality in primary polling, creating aggregators for primary elections wouldn't make much sense. Stay tuned for general election polling aggregates...
Primaries Tracked—
Progressive Wins—
Mod/Estab Wins—
Pending—
Wing Wins in Decided Primaries
Progressive
0
Moderate / Establishment
0
About This Data
Every ten years, after the census, states redraw the districts for the House of Representatives to ensure each district represents the same number of people. This is called redistricting. Gerrymandering is when one political party controls the redistricting process and creates unfair maps that favor their party. Traditionally, states only redistrict after the census. However, after the 2024 election, Donald Trump called on Republican states to redraw their maps mid-decade to gerrymander even more Democrats out of office, an unprecedented escalation. Democratic states have responded in kind, leading to a map arms race that has produced even more unfair districts ahead of the 2026 midterms.
R Gerrymander Enacted
D Gerrymander Enacted
Court-Ordered
In Progress (2026)
Potential (2028)
Failed
About This Data
Money runs elections. Candidates rake in millions of dollars per cycle so they can buy 30-second ad slots on Jeopardy (not a random example btw, Jeopardy is a prime ad target because the main demographic is older, educated, suburban people. They VOTE). By tracking the top fundraisers we see where the national enthusiasm is, and who is in touch with the people. Senate candidates tend to raise more for a variety of reasons, but don't sleep on some of these House candidates' numbers! Note: Senate totals reflect the full 2021-26 cycle, while House totals reflect just 2025-26.
Top 10 Total—
Avg per Candidate—
Next FEC FilingJul 15, 2026
Presidential Approval Tracker
Trump Approval Rating
Polling average of approval and disapproval since February 2026. Sources noted inline.
How this works
When tracking polls over time, some researchers use something called a “rolling average” to get a clearer picture of what the data is actually showing. Instead of looking at each poll in isolation, we average it together with the polls immediately before and after it. This helps smooth out any one-off results that might be outliers, and gives us a more reliable sense of where public opinion actually stands over time.
Approve
—
Disapprove
—
Net Approval
—
Latest Poll
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Approval vs. Disapproval
Polling Data
Date
Approve
Disapprove
Net
Source
Data hardcoded — update trumpApprovalData in source to add new polls.